Could a 55+ Community Be Right for You?

If you’re thinking about downsizing, you may be hearing about 55+ communities and wondering if they’d be a good fit for you. Here’s some information that could help you make your decision.

What Is a 55+ Community?

It’s important to note that these communities aren’t just for people who need extra support – they can be pretty vibrant, too. Many people who are downsizing opt for this type of home because they’re looking to be surrounded by people in a similar season of life. U.S. News explains:

“The terms ‘55-plus community,’ ‘active adult community,’ ‘lifestyle communities’ and ‘planned communities’ refer to a setting that caters to the needs and preferences of adults over the age of 55. These communities are designed for seniors who are able to care for themselves but may be looking to downsize to a community with others their same age and with similar interests.”

Why It’s Worth Considering This Type of Home

If that sounds like something that may interest you, here's one thing to consider. You may find you’ve got a growing list of options if you look at this type of community. According to 55places.com, the number of listings tailored for homebuyers in this age group has increased by over 50% compared to last year.

And a bigger pool of options could make your move much less stressful because it’s easier to find something that’s specifically designed to meet your needs.

Other Benefits of 55+ Communities

On top of that, there are other benefits to seeking out this type of home. An article from 55places.com, highlights just a few:

• Lower-Maintenance Living: Tired of mowing the lawn or pulling weeds? Many of these communities take care of this for you. So, you can spend more time doing fun things, and less time on maintenance.

• On-Site Amenities: Some feature lifestyle amenities like a clubhouse, fitness center, and more, so it’s easy to stay active. Plus, others offer media rooms, libraries, spas, arts and craft studios, and more.

• Like-Minded Neighbors: Additionally, these types of homes usually offer clubs, outings, meet-ups, and more to foster a close-knit community.

• Accessible Floor Plans: Not to mention, many have first-floor living options, ample storage spaces, and modern floor plans so you can have a home tailored to this phase in your life.

Bottom Line

If this sounds appealing to you, let’s talk about what’s available in our area, and the unique amenities for each community. You may find a 55+ home is exactly what you’ve been searching for.

Mortgage Rates Down a Full Percent from Recent High

Mortgage rates have been one of the hottest topics in the housing market lately because of their impact on affordability. And if you’re someone who’s looking to make a move, you’ve probably been waiting eagerly for rates to come down for that very reason. Well, if the past few weeks are any indication, you may be getting your wish.

Mortgage Rates Trend Down in Recent Weeks

There’s big news for mortgage rates. After the latest reports on the economy, inflation, the unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve’s recent comments, mortgage rates started dropping a bit. And according to Freddie Mac, they’re now at a level we haven’t seen since February. To help show the downward trend, check out the graph below:

Maybe you’re seeing this and wondering if you should ride the wave and see how low they’ll go. If that’s the case, here’s some important perspective. Remember, the record-low rates from the pandemic are a thing of the past. If you’re holding out hope to see a 3% mortgage rate again, you’re waiting for something experts agree won’t happen. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: 

“The hopes for lower interest rates need the reality check that 'lower' doesn't mean we're going back to 3% mortgage rates. . . the best we may be able to hope for over the next year is 5.5 to 6%.”

And with the decrease in recent weeks, you’ve got a big opportunity in front of you right now. It may be enough for you to want to jump back in. 

The Relationship Between Rates and Demand 

If you wait for mortgage rates to drop further, you might find yourself dealing with more competition as other buyers re-ignite their home searches too.

In the housing market, there’s generally a relationship between mortgage rates and buyer demand. Typically, the higher rates are, the lower buyer demand is. But when rates start to come down, things change. Buyers who were on the fence over higher rates will resume their searches. Here’s what that means for you. As a recent article from Bankrate says:

“If you’re ready to buy, now might be the time to strike. Home prices have been rising primarily because of a longstanding shortage of homes for sale. That’s unlikely to change, and if mortgage rates do fall below 6%, it’s possible buyers would enter the market en masse, further pushing up prices and resurrecting bidding wars.”

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to make your move, the recent downward trend in mortgage rates may be enough to get you off the sidelines. Rates have hit their lowest point in months, and that gives you the opportunity to jump back in before all the other buyers do too.

If you’re ready and able to start the process, reach out and let’s get started.

Solano County Market Snapshot for June 2024

The June 2024 Solano County Market Snapshot

June's market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Average Sales Price = $624K

This price is down compared to last month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has increased since 2023. If you've been thinking about selling, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 36 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have gone down since last month. Overall home are taking a little longer to sell compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 722 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are up over the last month.

# of Homes Sold = 349 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold is up compared to the month before. At this time last year, the number of homes sold is down by 8.6%.

Average Home Value = $356 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out June for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change = 5.4%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 5%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Apr 2023 to June 2024

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report.

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

MICHELLE PEREZ

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Why Moving to a Smaller Home After Retirement Makes Life Easier

Retirement is a time for relaxation, adventure, and enjoying the things you love. As you imagine this exciting new chapter in your life, it's important to think about whether your current home still fits your needs.

If it's too big, too costly, or just not convenient anymore, downsizing might help you make the most of your retirement years. To find out if a smaller, more manageable home might be the perfect fit for your new lifestyle, ask yourself these questions:

• Do the original reasons I bought my current house still stand, or have my needs changed since then?

• Do I really need and want the space I have right now, or could somewhere smaller be a better fit?

• What are my housing expenses right now, and how much do I want to try to save by downsizing?

If you answered yes to any of these, consider the benefits that come with downsizing.

The Benefits of Moving into a Smaller Home

There are many reasons why you should downsize. Here are just a few from Bankrate:

Your Equity Can Help Make Downsizing Possible

If those perks sound like something you’d want, you may already have what you need to make it happen. A recent article from Seniors Guide shares:

“And at a time when homeowners age 62 and older have more than $12 trillion in home equity, downsizing makes sense . . .”

If you’ve been in your house for a while, odds are you’re one of those homeowners who’s built up a considerable amount of equity. And that equity is something you can use to help you buy a home that better fits your needs today. Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains:

“Downsizing can mean taking that equity when the home is sold and using it to pay cash or make a large down payment on a lower-priced home, reducing your monthly living expenses.”

When you’re ready to use all that equity to fuel your next move, your real estate agent will be your guide through every step of the process. That includes setting the right price for your current house when you sell, finding the home that best fits your evolving needs, and understanding what you can afford at today’s mortgage rate.

Bottom Line

Starting your retirement journey? Think about downsizing – it could really help. When you're ready, let’s connect.

Solano County Market Snapshot for May 2024

The May 2024 Solano County Market Snapshot

May's market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Average Sales Price = $626K

This price is up compared to last month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has increased since 2023. If you've been thinking about selling, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 39 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have gone down since last month. Overall home are taking a little longer to sell compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 675 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are up over the last month.

# of Homes Sold = 313 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold remained about the same compared to the month before. As with active listings, this stat can be impacted seasonally and by changes in the market. We’ll continue to monitor how it trends in 2024.

Average Home Value = $354 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out May for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change = 5.4%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 5.4%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Mar 2023 to May 2024

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report.

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

Michelle Perez

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Homebuilders Aren’t Overbuilding, They’re Catching Up

You may have heard that there are more brand-new homes available right now than the norm. Today, about one in three homes on the market are newly built. And if you’re wondering what that means for the housing market and for your own move, here’s what you need to know.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

People remember what happened to the housing market back in 2008. And one of the factors that contributed to that crash was that there were too many homes for sale. While only part of the oversupply back then came from builders, the lasting impact is that some people still feel uneasy when they hear new home construction has ramped up.

Even though the supply of new homes has grown this year, the data shows there’s no need to worry. Builders aren’t overbuilding, they’re just catching up. 

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. Following the crash in 2008, there was a long period of underbuilding (shown in red). And it wasn’t until recently that we finally met the long-term average for how many homes are built in a typical year.

This shows, that even with the increase in new builds we’ve seen lately, there won’t suddenly be an oversupply of homes for sale. There’s too much of a gap to make up after over a decade of underbuilding. And if you’re still worried builders are overdoing it, here’s something else that should be reassuring. 

New Home Construction May Be at Its Peak for the Year

The latest data from the Census on housing starts (homes where builders just broke ground) and permits (homes where builders can start development soon) shows builders are slowing down their pace right now. Why is that?

They’re responding to still high mortgage rates and how those are impacting buyer demand. Basically, they’re pulling back appropriately in response to what’s happening in the market. As an article from HousingWire explains: 

“Even with a massive housing shortage across the nation, homebuilders are completing their pipelines and not seeking as many permits to construct new single-family houses.” 

Builders remember what happened when they overbuilt in the crash, and they’re looking to avoid a repeat of that. So, they’re being mindful and pulling back a bit.

You May Have More Options Now Versus Later

If you’re considering a newly built home, here’s how this impacts you. With builders seeking fewer permits and not breaking ground on as many new homes, we may be at the peak of new home construction for the year. This doesn’t mean new home construction is screeching to a stop – just that the pace is slowing down now, and that’ll impact what comes to market later this year. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Given the recent declines in housing starts, home completions will steadily show declines in about six months.”

So, if you’re ready and able to buy now, you may find you’ll have more newly built options to choose from now versus later on. This may be enough reason to kick off your search.

Just be sure to work with a local real estate agent you know and trust throughout the process. An agent will have valuable insight into builder reputations and other key factors specific to your market. And if there isn’t much new construction near you, they’ll be able to point you toward a nearby area where there is.

Bottom Line

While it’s true new home construction is a bigger segment of the market than the norm, that’s not a bad thing. Builders aren’t overbuilding, and they’re responding to market signals to avoid repeating the mistakes that were made in 2008.

If you want to buy now while new home options may be at their peak, let’s connect.

Home Prices Aren’t Declining, But Headlines Might Make You Think They Are

If you’ve seen the news lately about home sellers slashing prices, it’s a great example of how headlines do more to terrify than clarify. Here’s what’s really happening with prices.

The bottom line is home prices are higher than they were a year ago at this time, and they’re expected to keep rising, just at a slower pace.

But a recent article from Redfin notes,

“Price Drops Hit Highest Level in 18 Months As High Rates Dampen Buyer Demand.”

And that might make you think prices are declining.

Now, while it’s true the latest report from Realtor.com also shows 16.6% of homes on the market had price reductions in May, which is up from 12.7% last May, that doesn’t mean overall home prices are falling.

The key is knowing the difference between the asking price and the sold price.

Understanding Asking Price vs. Sold Price

In essence, the asking price, also known as a listing price, is the amount a seller hopes to get for their home when they list it. In reality, sellers can’t just put any price tag on their house and expect it to sell for top dollar. Today’s buyers are savvy customers, and when they aren’t willing to pay a premium for a home because their budgets are strained by higher mortgage rates, sellers need to adjust. And that’s what’s happening right now.

Based on market factors and what offers that seller receives, that asking price can change. If a seller isn’t getting much foot traffic, you may see them revise the price and make an adjustment to reignite interest in the home – and sometimes that’s because they’ve overpriced it from the start. That’s where price reductions come in, and when you see “price drops” in a headline, it sounds like declining home prices.

Mike Simonsen, CEO and Founder of Altos Research, says:

“Not only is the share of homes with price cuts elevated compared to one year ago, but more price cuts are happening each week than last year.”

On the other hand, the final sold price is the amount a buyer actually pays when the transaction is complete.

Here’s the most important thing to note: Actual sold prices are still rising, and they’re expected to continue to do so at least over the next 5 years.

What Does This Mean for Home Prices?

So, while there's been an increase in price reductions recently, this doesn't mean overall home values are declining. Instead, it’s a sign that demand is moderating. And, as a result, sellers are adjusting their expectations to align with today's market reality.

Even with more price reductions, home values are still growing on an annual basis, as they do nearly every year in the housing market. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices went up 6.6% over the last year (see below):

This map shows how prices rose just about everywhere in the country, indicating the market is not in decline.

So, while seller price reductions are often a leading indicator that prices may moderate in the months ahead, which experts have been saying for a while is expected to happen, they aren’t necessarily reason for alarm. The same article from Redfin also states:

“. . .those metrics suggest sale-price growth could soften in the coming months as persistently high mortgage rates turn off homebuyers. For now, the median-home sale price is up 4.3% year over year to another record high. . .”

And with inventory as tight as it is today, price moderation is much more likely in upcoming months than price declines.

Why This Is Good News for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, more realistic asking prices mean a better chance of securing a home at a fair price. It also means you can enter the market with more confidence, knowing prices are stabilizing rather than continuing to skyrocket.

For sellers, understanding the need to adjust your asking price can lead to faster sales and fewer price negotiations. Setting a realistic price from the start can attract more serious buyers and lead to smoother transactions.

Bottom Line

While the uptick in price reductions might seem troubling, it’s not a cause for concern. It reflects a market adjusting to new conditions. Home prices are continuing to grow, just at a more moderate pace. 

Questions You May Have About Selling Your House

There’s no denying mortgage rates are having a big impact on today’s housing market. And that may leave you with some questions about whether it still makes sense to sell your house and make a move.

Here are three of the top questions you may be asking – and the data that helps answer them.

1. Should I Wait To Sell?

If you’re thinking about waiting to sell until after mortgage rates come down, here’s what you need to know. So are a ton of other people.

And while mortgage rates are still forecasted to come down later this year, if you wait for that to happen, you may be dealing with a lot more competition as other buyers and sellers jump back in too. As Bright MLS says:

“Even a modest drop in rates will bring both more buyers and more sellers into the market.”

That means if you wait it out, you’ll have to deal with things like prices rising faster and more multiple-offer scenarios when you buy your next home.

2. Are Buyers Still Out There?

But that doesn’t mean no one is moving right now. While some people are holding off, there are still plenty of buyers active today. And here’s the data to prove it.

The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of how frequently buyers are touring homes. The graph below uses that index to show buyer activity for March (the latest data available) over the past seven years:

You can see demand has dipped some since the ‘unicorn’ years (shown in pink). That’s in response to a lot of market factors, like higher mortgage rates, rising prices, and limited inventory. But, to really understand today’s demand, you have to compare where we are now with the last normal years in the market (2018-2019) – not the abnormal ‘unicorn’ years. 

When you focus on just the blue bars, you can get an idea of how 2024 stacks up. And that gives you a whole new perspective.

Nationally, demand is still high compared to the last normal years in the housing market (2018-2019). And that means there’s still a market for your house to sell.

3. Can I Afford To Buy My Next Home?

And if you’re worried about how you’ll afford your next move with today’s rates and prices, consider this: you probably have more equity in your current home than you realize.

Homeowners have gained record amounts of equity over the past few years. And that equity can make a big difference when you buy your next home. You may even have enough to be an all-cash buyer and avoid taking out a mortgage altogether. As Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“ . . . those who have earned housing equity through home price appreciation are the current winners in today's housing market. One-third of recent home buyers did not finance their home purchase last month—the highest share in a decade. For these buyers, interest rates may be less influential in their purchase decisions.”

Bottom Line

If you’ve had these three questions on your mind and they’ve been holding you back from selling, hopefully, it helps to have this information now. A recent survey from Realtor.com shows more than 85% of potential sellers have been considering selling for over a year. That means there are a number of sellers like you who are on the fence.

But that same survey also talked to sellers who recently decided to take the plunge and list. And 79% of those recent sellers wish they’d sold sooner.

If you want to talk more about any of these questions or need more information, let’s connect.

How Many Homes Are Investors Actually Buying?

Are big investors really buying up all the homes today?

If you’re trying to find a house to buy, this may be something you’re wondering about. Maybe you’ve read about it or seen reels on social media saying investors buying all the homes is making it even harder to find what the average buyer is looking for. But spoiler alert – there’s a lot of misinformation out there. To clear things up, here's the scoop on what's really happening. A lot of the big investor activity is actually in the rearview mirror already.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) explains:

“Investors of all sizes spent billions of dollars buying homes during the pandemic. At the 2022 peak, they bought more than one in every four single-family homes sold, though more recently their activity has slowed as interest rates rose and supply became tighter.”

The key here is investor activity has slowed significantly, and even during the peak of investor buying, 3 out of every 4 single-family homes purchased were by regular, everyday buyers – not investors. And of the investors who bought over the past few years, most weren’t the big investors you may be hearing about. The vast majority were small mom-and-pop investors – people like your neighbors who own only a couple of homes, maybe even just their main residence and a vacation home.

But let’s focus on the giant, mega-investor firms since that's what is being talked about so frequently on social media right now. Mega investors are those who own 1,000+ properties. You may be surprised to see that, according to the Wall Street Journal, they don’t buy all that many homes (see graph below):

This graph tells us two things. First, institutional investors were never buying a large percentage of available homes. During the peak in 2022, they bought about 2% of available single-family homes. Second, that percentage has gotten even smaller recently (so small the number rounds down to 0%).

In an effort to understand why that percentage is trending down, private lender RCN Capital asked investors about the challenges they’re facing. Here’s what Jeffrey Tesch, CEO of RCN Capital, found out:

“Investors are already facing many challenges in today’s housing market – rising prices, limited inventory, and higher financing costs.”

Understanding these challenges is important because they show big, mega investors aren’t taking over the housing market.

So, don't fall for everything you hear. They aren't snatching up all the homes and making it impossible for regular people to buy. 

Bottom Line

Big investors aren’t buying all the homes out there. If you've got questions about what you're hearing about the housing market, let's chat. I can help you understand what's really going on.

Worried About Home Maintenance Costs? Consider This

If one of the main reasons you’re hesitant to buy a home is because you’re worried about the upkeep, here’s some information you may find interesting on both new home construction and existing homes (a home that’s been lived in by a previous owner).

Newly Built Homes Need Less Upfront Maintenance

If you can afford it, you may find a newly built home could help ease your worries about maintenance costs. Think about it, if everything in the house is brand new, it won’t have the wear and tear you may see in an existing home – and that means it’s less likely to need repairs. As LendingTree says:

“Since the systems, appliances, roof and foundation are new, you’re less likely to pay for major or minor repairs within the first few years of homeownership. That can make a big difference for first-time homebuyers who are adjusting to owning rather than renting.”

Plus, many builders also have warranties on their homes that would cover some of the more major expenses that could pop up. As First American explains:

“The new systems in your home, like plumbing, electrical, and HVAC, are typically covered for one to two years by your builder’s warranty. When something happens to these systems, you contact the builder or their warranty company.”

Existing Homes Can Still Have Great Perks

But it’s worth mentioning, that it’s not just newly built homes that can have warranties. It’s an option for existing homes too.

Your agent may be able to help you negotiate with the seller to add one as a concession on your contract. But you should know that not all sellers will be willing to do that. If they won’t, you could purchase one yourself, if you’d like to. An article from Forbes explains:

“During a real estate transaction, a home warranty policy can be purchased by the buyer or the seller.”

And there are benefits for both parties when it comes to a home warranty. According to MarketWatch:

“A buyer’s home warranty benefits both buyers and sellers, as it helps the seller close the deal while providing the future homeowner with peace of mind that they’ll be covered if a system or appliance breaks down . . . Sometimes, a seller will pay for the first year of the home buyer’s warranty to sweeten the deal, but it depends on the real estate market.”

If you’re interested in a home warranty for peace of mind, lean on your agent. They’ll negotiate on your behalf to see if a seller would be willing to cover one for you. Just remember, the likelihood of a seller throwing one in depends on conditions in your local market.

So, Should I Buy New or Existing?

While the need for less upfront maintenance is a great perk for new construction, there are some things a newly built home can’t provide that an existing home can.

For example, existing homes have a lot of character and charm that’s difficult to reproduce. The quirks that come with an older home may make it feel more homey. And, existing homes usually have more developed landscaping and a well-established sense of community. So, it can feel more inviting than something that’s a blank slate, like new construction often is. Not to mention, if you go with new construction, you may have to wait for the home to finish being built based on where it is in the process. It all depends on what’s most important to you.

Bottom Line

Whether you choose a newly built or an existing home, you may be able to ease some of your concerns over maintenance with a home warranty. To weigh your options and go over what’s the top priority for you, talk to the professionals.

What’s Next for Home Prices and Mortgage Rates?

If you’re thinking of making a move this year, there are two housing market factors that are probably on your mind: home prices and mortgage rates. You’re wondering what’s going to happen next. And if it’s worth it to move now, or better to wait it out.

The only thing you can really do is make the best decision you can based on the latest information available. So, here’s what experts are saying about both prices and rates.

1. What’s Next for Home Prices?

One reliable place you can turn to for information on home price forecasts is the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae – a survey of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.

According to the most recent release, experts are projecting home prices will continue to rise at least through 2028 (see the graph below):

While the percent of appreciation varies year-to-year, this survey says we’ll see prices rise (not fall) for at least the next 5 years, and at a much more normal pace.

What does that mean for your move? If you buy now, your home will likely grow in value and you should gain equity in the years ahead. But, based on these forecasts, if you wait and prices continue to climb, the price of a home will only be higher later on. 

2. When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

This is the million-dollar question in the industry. And there’s no easy way to answer it. That’s because there are a number of factors that are contributing to the volatile mortgage rate environment we’re in. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can influence the direction of mortgage rates. Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates.”

What happens next will depend on where each of those factors goes from here. Experts are optimistic rates should still come down later this year, but acknowledge changing economic indicators will continue to have an impact. As a CNET article says:

“Though mortgage rates could still go down later in the year, housing market predictions change regularly in response to economic data, geopolitical events and more.”

So, if you’re ready, willing, and able to afford a home right now, partner with a trusted real estate advisor to weigh your options and decide what’s right for you. 

Bottom Line

Let’s connect to make sure you have the latest information available on home prices and mortgage rate expectations. Together we’ll go over what the experts are saying so you can make an informed decision on your move.

Thinking of Selling? You Want an Agent with These Skills

Selling your house is a big decision. Your home is one of the biggest investments you’ve probably ever made, and it’s a place where you’ve created countless memories. That combo means there’s going to be a lot of emotions involved. You want someone who understands your perspective, knows what it feels like, and is an expert at helping homeowners just like you navigate the process of selling a home.

That’s where a good listing agent, also known as a seller's agent, comes in. Here are just a few skills you’ll want your agent to have.

The Ability To Turn Something Complex into Something Simple

Some agents are going to use big, fancy real estate terms to try and impress you. But you shouldn’t have to know all the industry jargon in order to understand what they’re saying. If anything, it's an agent’s job to keep it simple, so you don’t get overwhelmed or confused.

A great agent is going to be someone who is very good at explaining what’s happening in the housing market in a way that’s easy to understand. But they’ll take it one step further than that. They’ll explain what’s going on and, specifically, what that means for you. That way you’re always in the loop and it's a lot easier to feel confident when you’re making a big decision. As Business Insider explains:

“Maybe you have a better rapport with one of the agents you're considering, or you just feel like they're easier to approach. You're going to be working closely with this person, so it's important to choose an agent you're comfortable with.”

A Data-Based Approach on How To Price Your House

While it may be tempting to pick the agent who suggests the highest asking price for your house, that strategy may cost you. It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement when you see a bigger number, but overpricing your house can have consequences. It could mean your house will sit on the market longer because the higher price is actually turning away buyers.

Instead, partner with an agent who’s going to have an open conversation about how they recommend you should price your house. They won't throw out a number just to win your listing. A great agent will back up their number with solid data, explain their pricing strategy, and make sure you're both on the same page. As NerdWallet explains:

“An agent who recommends the highest price isn't always the best choice. Choose an agent who backs up the recommendation with market knowledge.”

A Fair, but Objective Negotiator

The home-selling process can be emotional, especially if you’ve been in your house for a long time. But that sentimental tie can make it harder to be objective during negotiations. That’s where a trusted professional can really make a difference.

They’re skilled negotiators who know how to stay calm under pressure. You can count on them to handle the back-and-forth and have your best interests at heart throughout the process. Not to mention, they’ll be able to rely on their market expertise and what they’re seeing work in other transactions to offer the best advice possible. As Rocket Mortgage explains:

“Whether this is your first or third time selling a house, listing agents work to help make the home selling process smoother and less stressful. These real estate professionals know the ins and outs of the industry and can help you secure the best deal.”

Bottom Line

Whether you're a first-time seller or you’ve been through this before, a great listing agent is the key to your success. Let’s connect so you have a skilled local expert by your side to guide you through every step of the process.

Boomers Moving Will Be More Like a Gentle Tide Than a Tsunami

Have you heard the term “Silver Tsunami” getting tossed around recently? If so, here’s what you really need to know. That phrase refers to the idea that a lot of baby boomers are going to move or downsize all at once. And the fear is that a sudden influx of homes for sale would have a big impact on housing. That’s because it would create a whole lot more competition for smaller homes and would throw off the balance of supply and demand, which ultimately would impact home prices.

But here’s the thing. There are a couple of faults in that logic. Let’s break them down and put your mind at ease.

Not All Baby Boomers Plan To Move

For starters, plenty of baby boomers don’t plan on moving at all. A study from the AARP says more than half of adults aged 65 and older want to stay in their homes and not move as they age (see graph below):

While it’s true circumstances may change and some people who don’t plan to move (the red in the chart above) may realize they need to down the road, the vast majority are counting on aging in place.

As for those who stay put, they’ll likely modify their homes as their needs change over time. And when updating their existing home won’t work, some will buy a second home and keep their original one as an investment to fuel generational wealth for their loved ones. As an article from Inman explains:

“Many boomers have no desire to retire fully and take up less space . . . Many will modify their current home, and the wealthiest will opt to have multiple homes.”

Even Those Who Do Move Won’t Do It All at Once

While not all baby boomers are looking to sell their homes and move – the ones who do won’t all do it at the same time. Instead, it’ll happen slowly over many years. As Freddie Mac says:

“We forecast the ‘tsunami’ will be more like a tide, bringing a gradual exit of 9.2 million Boomers by 2035 . . .”

As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.”

Bottom Line

If you're stressed about a Silver Tsunami shaking the housing market overnight, don't be. Baby boomers will move slowly over a much longer period of time.

Finding Your Perfect Home in a Fixer Upper

If you’re trying to buy a home and are having a hard time finding one you can afford, it may be time to consider a fixer-upper. That’s a house that needs a little elbow grease or some updates, but has good bones. Fixer-uppers can be a really great option if you’re looking to break into the housing market or want to stretch your budget further. According to NerdWallet:

“Buying a fixer-upper can provide a path to homeownership for first-time home buyers or a way for repeat buyers to afford a larger home or a better neighborhood. With the relatively low inventory of homes for sale these days, a move-in ready home can be hard to find, especially if you’re on a budget.”

Basically, since the number of homes for sale is still so low, if you’re only willing to tour homes that have all your dream features, you may be cutting down your options too much and making it harder on yourself than necessary. It may be time to cast a wider net.

Sometimes the perfect home is the one you perfect after buying it.

Here’s some information that can help you pinpoint what you truly need so you can be strategic in your home search. First, make a list of all the features you want in a home. From there, work to break those features into categories like this:

• Must-Haves - If a house doesn’t have these features, it won’t work for you and your lifestyle.

• Nice-To-Haves - These are features you’d love to have but can live without. Nice-to-haves aren’t dealbreakers, but if you find a home that hits all the must-haves and some of these, it’s a contender.

• Dream State - This is where you can really think big. Again, these aren’t features you’ll need, but if you find a home in your budget that has all the must-haves, most of the nice-to-haves, and any of these, it’s a clear winner.

Once you’ve sorted your list in a way that works for you, share it with your real estate agent. They’ll help you find homes that deliver on your top needs right now and have the potential to be your dream home with a little bit of sweat equity. Lean on their expertise as you think through what’s possible, what features are easy to change or add, and how to make it happen. According to Progressive:

“Many real estate agents specialize in finding fixer-uppers and have a network of inspectors, contractors, electricians, and the like.”

Your agent can also offer advice on which upgrades and renovations will set you up to get the greatest return on your investment if you ever decide to sell down the line.

Bottom Line

If you haven’t found a home you love that’s in your budget, it may be worth thinking through all your options, including fixer-uppers. Sometimes the perfect home for you is the one you perfect after buying it. To see what’s available in our area, let’s connect.

Why Access Is So Important When Selling Your House

If you’re gearing up to sell your house this spring, one of the early conversations you’ll have with your agent is about how much access you want to give buyers. And you may not realize just how important it is to make your house easy to tour.

Spring is the peak homebuying season, so opening up your house to as many showings as possible can really help you capitalize on all the extra buyer activity we see at this time of year.

Since buyer competition ramps up in the spring, buyers are going to want to move fast to see your house once they find your listing. And, if they see it and fall in love with it at a time they know they’re competing with other buyers, you may be more likely to get the offer you’re looking for on your home.

It’s understandable you want to keep the disruptions to your own schedule to a minimum, and you may be stressed about having to keep it clean, but it’s worth it. As an article from Investopedia explains:

“If someone wants to view your house, you need to accommodate them, even if it inconveniences you. Clean and tidy the house before every single visit. A buyer won’t know or care if your house was clean last week. It’s a lot of work, but stay focused on the prize.”

To figure out what’s best for you, your agent will walk you through options like the ones below. This list breaks things down, starting with what’s most convenient for buyers and getting less buyer-focused as the list goes on:

• Lockbox on the Door – A key is available via a lockbox, which makes it easy for agents to show the home to potential buyers. This gives the most flexibility because the key is on-site and convenient.

• Providing a Key to the Home – An agent would have to stop by an office to pick up the key with this option. This is still pretty convenient for showings, but not quite as simple.

• Open Access with a Phone Call – You allow a showing with just a phone call’s notice, which can be great for someone who sees your house while driving by.

• By Appointment Only – This gives you a more advanced warning so you can get the house tidied up and be sure you have somewhere else you can go in the meantime. But it’s also a bit more restrictive.

• Limited Access – You might go this route if you only want to have your house available on specific days or at certain times of day. But realize this is the most difficult and least flexible of the choices.

As an article from U.S. News Real Estate says:

“Buyers like to see homes on their schedule, which often means evenings and weekends. Plus, they want to be able to tour a home soon after they find it online, especially if they're competing with other buyers. If your home can be shown with little or no notice, more prospective buyers will see it. If you require 24 hours’ notice, they may choose to skip your home altogether.”

Your agent is going to help you find the right path forward based on your schedule and what’s working for other sellers in your area. And if you’ve got a hardline on granting buyers more access or have interested out of town buyers that just can’t be there in person, your agent will get creative and help you explore other options like video tours, virtual showings, and more.

Bottom Line

When it comes to selling your house, you want to be sure to get as much buyer activity as you can. Let’s connect to talk about which level of access helps make that possible.

Why There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market

There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.  

According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:

“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”

That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):

Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):

 The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).

But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):

 As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.

Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?

Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn't expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.

Bottom Line

Most experts now think we won't have a recession in the next year. They also don't expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.

Some Experts Say Mortgage Rates May Fall Below 6% Later This Year

There’s a lot of confusion in the market about what’s happening with day-to-day movement in mortgage rates right now, but here’s what you really need to know: compared to the near 8% peak last fall, mortgage rates have trended down overall.

And if you’re looking to buy or sell a home, this is a big deal. While they’re going to continue to bounce around a bit based on various economic drivers (like inflation and reactions to the consumer price index, or CPI), don’t let the short-term volatility distract you. The experts agree the overarching downward trend should continue this year.

While we won’t see the record-low rates homebuyers got during the pandemic, some experts think we should see rates dip below 6% later this year. As Dean Baker, Senior Economist, Center for Economic Research, says:

“They will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows, although we may soon see rates under 6.0 percent, which would be low by pre-Great Recession standards.”

And Baker isn’t the only one saying this is a possibility. The latest Fannie Mae projections also indicate we may see a rate below 6% by the end of this year (see the green box in the chart below):

The chart shows mortgage rate projections for 2024 from Fannie Mae. It includes the one that came out in December, and compares it to the updated 2024 forecast they released just one month later. And if you look closely, you’ll notice the projections are on the way down.

It’s normal for experts to re-forecast as they watch current market trends and the broader economy, but what this shows is experts are feeling confident rates should continue to decline, if inflation cools.

What This Means for You

But remember, no one can say for sure what will happen (and by when) – and short-term volatility is to be expected. So, don’t let small fluctuations scare you. Focus on the bigger picture.

If you’ve found a home you love in today’s market – especially where finding a home that meets your budget and your needs can be a challenge – it’s probably not a good idea to try to time the market and wait until rates drop below 6%.

With rates already lower than they were last fall, you have an opportunity in front of you right now. That’s because even a small quarter point dip in rates gives your purchasing power a boost.

Bottom Line

If you wanted to move last year but were holding off hoping rates would fall, now may be the time to act. Let’s connect to get the ball rolling.

Solano County Market Snapshot for January 2024

The January 2024 Solano County Market Snapshot

January’s market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Average Sales Price = $585K

This price is up compared to the previous month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has increased since 2023. If you've been thinking about selling, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 53 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have increased since the previous month. Overall home sales are selling more quickly compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 422 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are down over the last month.

# of Homes Sold = 228 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold decreased compared to the month before. As with active listings, this stat can be impacted seasonally and by changes in the market. We’ll continue to monitor how it trends in 2024.

Average Home Value = $330 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out January for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change = 4.4%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 4.4%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Nov 2022 to Jan 2024

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report.

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

Michelle Perez

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Bridging the Gaps on the Road to Homeownership

Homeownership is a major part of the American Dream. But, the path to achieving this dream can be quite difficult. While progress has been made to improve fair housing access, households of color still face unique challenges on the road to owning a home. Working with the right real estate experts can make all the difference for diverse buyers.

It's clear that achieving homeownership is more challenging for certain groups because there’s still a measurable gap between the overall average U.S. homeownership rate and that of non-white groups. Today, Black households continue to have the lowest homeownership rate nationally (see graph below):

Homeownership is an important part of building household wealth that can be passed down to future generations. According to a report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), almost half of Black homebuyers in 2023 were first-time buyers. That means many didn’t have home equity they could use toward their home purchase.

That financial hurdle alone makes buying a home more challenging, especially at a time when affordability is a major concern for first-time buyers. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at NAR says:

“It’s an incredibly difficult market for all home buyers right now, especially first-time home buyers and especially first-time home buyers of color.”

Because of these challenges, there are several down payment assistance programs specifically aimed at helping minority buyers fulfill their homeownership dreams:

• The 3By30 program offers valuable resources for Black buyers, making it easier for them to secure a down payment and buy a home.

• For Native Americans, Down Payment Resource highlights 42 U.S. homebuyer assistance programs across 14 states that make homeownership more attainable by providing support with down payments and other costs.

• Fannie Mae provides down payment assistance to eligible first-time homebuyers living in Latino communities.

Even if you don’t qualify for these programs, there are many other federal, state, and local options available to look into. And a real estate professional can help you find the ones that best meet your needs.

For minority homebuyers, the challenges that remain can be a point of pain and frustration. That’s why it’s so important for members of diverse groups to have the right team of experts on their sides throughout the homebuying process. These professionals aren’t only experienced advisors who understand the market and give the best advice, they’re also compassionate educators who will advocate for your best interests every step of the way.

Bottom Line

Let’s connect to make sure you have the information and support you need as you walk the path to homeownership.

What’s Really Happening with Mortgage Rates?

Are you feeling a bit unsure about what’s really happening with mortgage rates? That might be because you’ve heard someone say they’re coming down. But then you read somewhere else that they’re up again. And that may leave you scratching your head and wondering what’s true.

The simplest answer is: that what you read or hear will vary based on the time frame they’re looking at. Here’s some information that can help clear up the confusion.

Mortgage Rates Are Volatile by Nature

Mortgage rates don’t move in a straight line. There are too many factors at play for that to happen. Instead, rates bounce around because they’re impacted by things like economic conditions, decisions from the Federal Reserve, and so much more. That means they might be up one day and down the next depending on what’s going on in the economy and the world as a whole.

Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show the ebbs and flows in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate since last October:

 If you look at the graph, you’ll see a lot of peaks and valleys – some bigger than others. And when you use data like this to explain what’s happening, the story can be different based on which two points in the graph you’re comparing.

For example, if you’re only looking at the beginning of this month through now, you may think mortgage rates are on the way back up. But, if you look at the latest data point and compare it to the peak in October, rates have trended down. So, what’s the right way to look at it?

The Big Picture

Mortgage rates are always going to bounce around. It’s just how they work. So, you shouldn’t focus too much on the small, daily changes. Instead, to really understand the overall trend, zoom out and look at the big picture.

When you look at the highest point (October) compared to where rates are now, you can see they’ve come down compared to last year. And if you’re looking to buy a home, this is big news. Don’t let the little blips distract you. The experts agree, overall, that the larger downward trend could continue this year. 

Bottom Line

Let’s connect if you have any questions about what you’re reading or hearing about the housing market.