Solano County Market Snapshot for August 2024

The August 2024 Solano County Market Snapshot

August’s market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Looking for more statistics on specific areas? Here’s where I got the equity stats:
Fairfield | Suisun City | Vacaville | Dixon

Average Sales Price = $603K

This price is down compared to last month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has decreased since 2023. If you've been thinking about buying, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 43 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have remained the same since last month. Overall homes are taking 53.6% longer to sell compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 722 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are down over the last month.

# of Homes Sold = 349 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold is down compared to the month before. At this time last year, the number of homes sold is down by 2.4%.

Average Home Value = $346 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out Augst for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

Estimated Home Value 12-Month Change = +2.2%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 2.2%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Jun 2023 to Aug 2024

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report. To see the stats for estimated home value, see: Solano County

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

MICHELLE PEREZ

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Solano County Market Snapshot for June 2024

The June 2024 Solano County Market Snapshot

June's market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Average Sales Price = $624K

This price is down compared to last month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has increased since 2023. If you've been thinking about selling, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 36 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have gone down since last month. Overall home are taking a little longer to sell compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 722 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are up over the last month.

# of Homes Sold = 349 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold is up compared to the month before. At this time last year, the number of homes sold is down by 8.6%.

Average Home Value = $356 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out June for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change = 5.4%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 5%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Apr 2023 to June 2024

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report.

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

MICHELLE PEREZ

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Solano County Market Snapshot for May 2024

The May 2024 Solano County Market Snapshot

May's market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Average Sales Price = $626K

This price is up compared to last month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has increased since 2023. If you've been thinking about selling, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 39 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have gone down since last month. Overall home are taking a little longer to sell compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 675 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are up over the last month.

# of Homes Sold = 313 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold remained about the same compared to the month before. As with active listings, this stat can be impacted seasonally and by changes in the market. We’ll continue to monitor how it trends in 2024.

Average Home Value = $354 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out May for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change = 5.4%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 5.4%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Mar 2023 to May 2024

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report.

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

Michelle Perez

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Why There Won’t Be a Recession That Tanks the Housing Market

There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.  

According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:

“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”

That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):

Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):

 The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).

But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):

 As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.

Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?

Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn't expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.

Bottom Line

Most experts now think we won't have a recession in the next year. They also don't expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.

Some Experts Say Mortgage Rates May Fall Below 6% Later This Year

There’s a lot of confusion in the market about what’s happening with day-to-day movement in mortgage rates right now, but here’s what you really need to know: compared to the near 8% peak last fall, mortgage rates have trended down overall.

And if you’re looking to buy or sell a home, this is a big deal. While they’re going to continue to bounce around a bit based on various economic drivers (like inflation and reactions to the consumer price index, or CPI), don’t let the short-term volatility distract you. The experts agree the overarching downward trend should continue this year.

While we won’t see the record-low rates homebuyers got during the pandemic, some experts think we should see rates dip below 6% later this year. As Dean Baker, Senior Economist, Center for Economic Research, says:

“They will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows, although we may soon see rates under 6.0 percent, which would be low by pre-Great Recession standards.”

And Baker isn’t the only one saying this is a possibility. The latest Fannie Mae projections also indicate we may see a rate below 6% by the end of this year (see the green box in the chart below):

The chart shows mortgage rate projections for 2024 from Fannie Mae. It includes the one that came out in December, and compares it to the updated 2024 forecast they released just one month later. And if you look closely, you’ll notice the projections are on the way down.

It’s normal for experts to re-forecast as they watch current market trends and the broader economy, but what this shows is experts are feeling confident rates should continue to decline, if inflation cools.

What This Means for You

But remember, no one can say for sure what will happen (and by when) – and short-term volatility is to be expected. So, don’t let small fluctuations scare you. Focus on the bigger picture.

If you’ve found a home you love in today’s market – especially where finding a home that meets your budget and your needs can be a challenge – it’s probably not a good idea to try to time the market and wait until rates drop below 6%.

With rates already lower than they were last fall, you have an opportunity in front of you right now. That’s because even a small quarter point dip in rates gives your purchasing power a boost.

Bottom Line

If you wanted to move last year but were holding off hoping rates would fall, now may be the time to act. Let’s connect to get the ball rolling.

Solano County Market Snapshot for January 2024

The January 2024 Solano County Market Snapshot

January’s market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Average Sales Price = $585K

This price is up compared to the previous month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has increased since 2023. If you've been thinking about selling, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 53 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have increased since the previous month. Overall home sales are selling more quickly compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 422 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are down over the last month.

# of Homes Sold = 228 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold decreased compared to the month before. As with active listings, this stat can be impacted seasonally and by changes in the market. We’ll continue to monitor how it trends in 2024.

Average Home Value = $330 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out January for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change = 4.4%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 4.4%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Nov 2022 to Jan 2024

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report.

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

Michelle Perez

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

What’s Really Happening with Mortgage Rates?

Are you feeling a bit unsure about what’s really happening with mortgage rates? That might be because you’ve heard someone say they’re coming down. But then you read somewhere else that they’re up again. And that may leave you scratching your head and wondering what’s true.

The simplest answer is: that what you read or hear will vary based on the time frame they’re looking at. Here’s some information that can help clear up the confusion.

Mortgage Rates Are Volatile by Nature

Mortgage rates don’t move in a straight line. There are too many factors at play for that to happen. Instead, rates bounce around because they’re impacted by things like economic conditions, decisions from the Federal Reserve, and so much more. That means they might be up one day and down the next depending on what’s going on in the economy and the world as a whole.

Take a look at the graph below. It uses data from Mortgage News Daily to show the ebbs and flows in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate since last October:

 If you look at the graph, you’ll see a lot of peaks and valleys – some bigger than others. And when you use data like this to explain what’s happening, the story can be different based on which two points in the graph you’re comparing.

For example, if you’re only looking at the beginning of this month through now, you may think mortgage rates are on the way back up. But, if you look at the latest data point and compare it to the peak in October, rates have trended down. So, what’s the right way to look at it?

The Big Picture

Mortgage rates are always going to bounce around. It’s just how they work. So, you shouldn’t focus too much on the small, daily changes. Instead, to really understand the overall trend, zoom out and look at the big picture.

When you look at the highest point (October) compared to where rates are now, you can see they’ve come down compared to last year. And if you’re looking to buy a home, this is big news. Don’t let the little blips distract you. The experts agree, overall, that the larger downward trend could continue this year. 

Bottom Line

Let’s connect if you have any questions about what you’re reading or hearing about the housing market.

Solano County Market Snapshot for December 2023

The December 2023 Solano County Market Snapshot

December's market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Average Sales Price = $618K

This price is up compared to last month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has increased since 2022. If you've been thinking about selling, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 35 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have remained the same since last month. Overall home sales are selling more quickly compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 549 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are down over the last month. Keep in mind, fewer people tend to sell their homes during the holidays, and this data can be impacted by the season.

# of Homes Sold = 240 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold decreased compared to the month before. As with active listings, this stat can be impacted seasonally and by changes in the market. We’ll continue to monitor how it trends in 2024.

Average Home Value = $350 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out November for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change = 4.5%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 4.5%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Sep 2022 to Nov 2023

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report.

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

Michelle Perez

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Experts Project Home Prices Will Rise over the Next 5 Years

Even with so much data showing home prices are actually rising in most of the country, there are still a lot of people who worry there will be another price crash in the immediate future. In fact, a recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them.

To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

While seeing a small handful of expert opinions may not be enough to change your mind, hopefully, a larger group of experts will reassure you. Here’s that larger group.

The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics is a great resource to show what experts forecast for home prices over a five-year period. It includes projections from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. And the results from the latest quarterly release show home prices are expected to go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, remember home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it should go up by another 2.17% next year.

If you’re worried home prices are going to fall, here’s the big takeaway. Even though prices vary by local area, experts project they’ll continue to rise across the country for years to come at a pace that’s more normal for the market.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re not convinced yet, maybe these numbers will get your attention. They show how a typical home’s value could change over the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES. Check out the graph below:

In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

Bottom Line

If you’re someone who’s worried home prices are going to fall, rest assured a lot of experts say it’s just the opposite – nationally, home prices will continue to climb not just next year, but for years to come. If you have any questions or concerns about what’s next for home prices in our local area, let’s connect. 

Is Wall Street Buying Up All the Homes in America?

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you may find yourself interested in the latest real estate headlines so you can have a pulse on all of the things that could impact your decision. If that’s the case, you’ve probably heard mention of investors, and wondered how they’re impacting the housing market right now. That could leave you asking yourself questions like:

• How many homes do investors own?

• Are institutional investors, like large Wall Street Firms, really buying up so many homes that the average person can’t find one?

To answer those questions, here’s the real story of what’s happening based on the data.  

Let’s start with establishing how many single-family homes (SFHs) there are and what portion of those are rentals owned by investors. According to SFR Investor, which studies the single-family rental market in the United States, there are eighty-two million single-family homes in this country. But how many of them are actually rentals?

According to data shared in a recent post, sixty-eight million (82.93%) of those homes are owner-occupied – meaning the person who owns the home lives in it. If you subtract that sixty-eight million from the total number of single-family homes (82 million), that leaves just about fourteen million homes left that are single-family rentals (SFRs).

Do institutional investors own all of those remaining fourteen million homes? Not even close. Let’s take it one step further. There are four categories of investors:

• The mom & pop investor who owns between 1-9 SFRs

• The regional investor who owns between 10-99 SFRs

• Smaller national investor who owns between 100-999 SFRs

• The institutional investor who owns over 1,000 SFRs

These categories show that not all investors are large institutional investors. To help convey that even more clearly, here are the percentages of rental homes owned by each type of investor (see chart below):

 As you can see in the chart, despite what the news and social media would have you believe, the green shows the vast majority are not owned by large institutional investors. Instead, most are owned by small mom & pop investors, like your friends and neighbors.

What’s actually happening is, that there are people out there, just like you, who believe in homeownership, and they view buying a home (or a second home) as an investment. Maybe they saw an opportunity to buy a second home over the last few years to use it as a rental and generate additional income. Or maybe they just decided to keep their first house rather than sell it when they moved up.

So, don’t believe everything you read or hear about institutional investors. They aren’t buying up all the homes and making it impossible for the average person to buy. That’s just not what the numbers show. Institutional investors are actually the smallest piece of the pie chart.

Bottom Line

While it’s true that institutional investors are a player in the single-family rental marketplace, they’re not buying up all of the houses on the market. If you have other questions about things you’re hearing about the housing market, let’s connect so you have an expert to give you the context you need.

Don’t Believe Everything You Read About Home Prices

According to the latest data from Fannie Mae, 23% of Americans still think home prices will go down over the next twelve months. But why do roughly 1 in 4 people feel that way?

It has a lot to do with all the negative talk about home prices over the past year. Since late 2022, the media has created a lot of fear about a price crash and those concerns are still lingering. You may be hearing people in your own life saying they’re worried about home prices or see on social media that some influencers are saying prices are going to come tumbling down.

If you’re someone who still thinks prices are going to fall, ask yourself this: Which is a more reliable place to get your information – clickbait headlines and social media or a trusted expert on the housing market?

The answer is simple. Listen to the professionals who specialize in residential real estate.

Here’s the latest data you can actually trust. Housing market experts acknowledge that nationally, prices did dip down slightly late last year, but that was short-lived. Data shows prices have already rebounded this year after that slight decline in 2022 (see graph below):

But it’s not just Fannie Mae that’s reporting this bounce back. Experts from across the industry are showing it in their data too. And that’s why so many forecasts now project home prices will net positive this year – not negative. The graph below helps prove this point with the latest forecasts from each organization:

 What’s worth noting is that, just a few short weeks ago, the Fannie Mae forecast was for 3.9% appreciation in 2023. In the forecast that just came out, that projection was updated from 3.9% to 6.7% for the year. This increase goes to show just how confident experts are that home prices will net positive this year.

So, if you believe home prices are falling, it may be time to get your insights from the experts instead – and they’re saying prices aren’t falling, they’re climbing.

Bottom Line

There’s been a lot of misleading information about home prices over the past year. And that’s still having an impact on how people are feeling about the housing market today. But it’s best not to believe everything you hear or read.

If you want information you can trust, turn to the real estate experts. Their data shows home prices are on the way back up and will net positive for the year. If you have questions about what’s happening in our local area, let’s connect. 

The Q3 2023 Solano County Market Recap

The Q3 (Jul-Sep) 2023 Solano County Market Recap

I created this resource for you to share the market data & trends we saw in our local area. Below you’ll learn more about last quarter’s shifting market. I’ve included info that’s valuable whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, or you want to be a more informed homeowner in 2023.

# of Homes Sold = 906

We started the third quarter with a competitive market that drove up home sales. Then, home sales slowed down with the rise of mortgage rates. Overall, we saw fewer homes sell than in Q3 2022 in our local area.

Average Home Value = $348 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out the third quarter for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change =

Overall home values are down over last year. In fact, we're seeing a slight decrease of 0.3%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

Average Sales Price = $620K

This is the average price a listing in our area sold for. This price is up over last year. If you've been thinking about buying, know that you can benefit from less competition from other buyers in today's market.

Days on Market = 30 Days

This is how long a home is actively for sale on the market before it's pending or goes under contract. While homes aren't selling as quickly as they were in the recent past, our Days on Market stat for Q3 2022 (36 days) puts this timeframe into perspective.

Total Active Listings = 562 homes

At the time this report was created, we currently have 562 of homes for sale in Solano County. To see a list of current inventory - valuable info for both buyers & sellers - please let me know!"

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please reply back and let me know where!

Note: the market data I'm sharing includes -Data Source: BAREIS MLS. Timeframe: Quarter 3 (July to Sept 2023). Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County. Click here to see the graphs for this quarter’s report.

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this quarter! As we gear up for the next season, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

Michelle Perez

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Are Higher Mortgage Rates Here To Stay?

Mortgage rates have been back on the rise recently and that’s getting a lot of attention from the press. If you’ve been following the headlines, you may have even seen rates recently reached their highest level in over two decades (see graph below):  

That can feel like a little bit of a gut punch if you’re thinking about making a move. If you’re wondering whether or not you should delay your plans, here’s what you really need to know.   

 How Higher Mortgage Rates Impact You  

 There’s no denying mortgage rates are higher right now than they were in recent years. And, when rates are up, that affects overall home affordability. It works like this. The higher the rate, the more expensive it is to borrow money when you buy a home. That’s because, as rates trend up, your monthly mortgage payment for your future home loan also increases.  

 Urban Institute explains how this is impacting buyers and sellers right now: 

 “When mortgage rates go up, monthly housing payments on new purchases also increase. For potential buyers, increased monthly payments can reduce the share of available affordable homes . . . Additionally, higher interest rates mean fewer homes on the market, as existing homeowners have an incentive to hold on to their home to keep their low interest rate.” 

 Basically, some people are deciding to put their plans on hold because of where mortgage rates are right now. But what you want to know is: is that a good strategy? 

 Where Will Mortgage Rates Go from Here? 

 If you’re eager for mortgage rates to drop, you’re not alone. A lot of people are waiting for that to happen. But here’s the thing. No one knows when it will. Even the experts can’t say with certainty what’s going to happen next.  

 Forecasts project rates will fall in the months ahead, but what the latest data says is that rates have been climbing lately. This disconnect shows just how tricky mortgage rates are to project.  

 The best advice for your move is this: don’t try to control what you can’t control. This includes trying to time the market or guess what the future holds for mortgage rates. As CBS News states: 

 “If you're in the market for a new home, experts typically recommend focusing your search on the right home purchase — not the interest rate environment.” 

 Instead, work on building a team of skilled professionals, including a trusted lender and real estate agent, who can explain what’s happening in the market and what it means for you. If you need to move because you’re changing jobs, want to be closer to family, or are in the middle of another big life change, the right team can help you achieve your goal, even now. 

Bottom Line

The best advice for your move is: don’t try to control what you can’t control – especially mortgage rates. Even the experts can’t say for certain where they’ll go from here. Instead, focus on building a team of trusted professionals who can keep you informed. When you’re ready to get the process started, let’s connect.

Home Prices Are Not Falling

During the fourth quarter of last year, some housing experts projected home prices were going to crash in 2023. The media ran with those forecasts and put out headlines calling for doom and gloom in the housing market. All of this negative news coverage made a lot of people have doubts about the strength of the residential real estate market.

If it made you question if you should delay your own plans to move, here’s what you really need to know.

Home Prices Never Crashed

Disregard what you saw in the headlines. The actual data shows home prices were remarkably resilient and performed far better than the media would have you believe (see graph below):

This graph uses reports from three trusted sources to clearly illustrate prices have already rebounded after experiencing only slight declines nationally. That’s a far cry from the crash so many articles called for.

The declines that did happen (shown in red), weren’t drastic but were short-lived. As Nicole Friedman, a reporter at the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), says:

“Home prices aren’t falling anymore. . . The surprisingly quick recovery suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected . . .”

Even though some media coverage made a big deal about home prices pulling back, the slight correction that happened is already in the rearview mirror. Basically, this data shows you home prices aren’t falling anymore – they’re actually going back up.

What’s Next for Home Prices?

The consensus from experts is that home price growth will continue in the years ahead and is returning to normal levels for the market. That means we’ll still see home prices appreciating, just at a slower pace than the last few years – and that’s a good thing.

Some news sources will see home price growth slowing and put out stories that make you think prices are falling again. The return of misleading headlines like those is already having an impact on how homebuyers are feeling again. You can see how this affects general opinion in the Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae (see graph below):

  While the percentage of Americans who think prices will fall has been slowly declining this year, the latest Consumer Confidence data indicates that’s ticked back up recently (shown in red). This change is surprising especially since the home price data shows prices are going up, not down. It tells you the impact the media still has on public opinion.

Don’t fall for the negative headlines and become part of this statistic. Remember, data from a number of sources shows home prices aren’t falling anymore.

Bottom Line

Even though the media may make things sound doom and gloom, the data shows home prices aren’t falling anymore. So, don’t let the headlines scare you or delay your plans. Let's connect so you have a trusted resource to cut through the noise and tell you what’s really happening in our area.

The Return of Normal Seasonality for Home Price Appreciation

If you’re thinking of making a move, one of the biggest questions you have right now is probably: what’s happening with home prices? Despite what you may be hearing in the news, nationally, home prices aren’t falling. It’s just that price growth is beginning to normalize. Here’s the context you need to really understand that trend.

In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. It’s called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach. Home prices follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand.

That’s why there’s a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to show typical monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2022 (not adjusted, so you can see the seasonality):

As the data shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do in the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again. Price growth slows, but still typically appreciates.

After several unusual ‘unicorn’ years, today’s higher mortgage rates helped usher in the first signs of the return of seasonality. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.”

Why This Is So Important to Understand

In the coming months, you’re going to see the media talk more about home prices. In their coverage, you’ll likely see industry terms like these:

• Appreciation: when prices increase.

• Deceleration of appreciation: when prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower or more moderate pace.

• Depreciation: when prices decrease.

Don’t let the terminology confuse you or let any misleading headlines cause any unnecessary fear. The rapid pace of home price growth the market saw in recent years was unsustainable. It had to slow down at some point and that’s what we’re starting to see – deceleration of appreciation, not depreciation. 

Remember, it’s normal to see home price growth slow down as the year goes on. And that definitely doesn’t mean home prices are falling. They’re just rising at a more moderate pace.

Bottom Line

While the headlines are generating fear and confusion on what’s happening with home prices, the truth is simple. Home price appreciation is returning to normal seasonality. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our local area, let’s connect.

What Experts Project for Home Prices Over the Next 5 Years

If you're planning to buy a home, one thing to consider is what experts project home prices will do in the future and how that might affect your investment. While you may have seen negative news over the past year about home prices, they’re doing far better than expected and are rising across the country. And data shows, experts forecast home prices will keep appreciating.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

Pulsenomics polled over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts in the latest quarterly Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES). The results show what the panelists project will happen with home prices over the next five years. Here are those expert forecasts saying home prices will go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

If you’re someone who was worried home prices would fall because of stories you’ve read online, here's the big takeaway. Even though home prices vary by local market, experts project prices will continue to rise across the country for years to come. And these numbers indicate the return to more normal home price appreciation.

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, it’s important to recognize home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct, after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it’ll appreciate by another 2.17% next year. This is a good example of why owning a home is a choice that wins big over time.

What Does This Mean for You?

Once you buy a home, price appreciation raises your home’s value, and that grows your household wealth. To see how a typical home's value could change in the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES, check out the graph below:

In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

So, if you're thinking about whether buying a home is a good choice, remember how it can be a powerful way to grow your wealth in the long run. 

Bottom Line

According to the experts, home prices are expected to grow over the next five years at a more normal pace. If you’re ready to become a homeowner, know that buying today can set you up for long-term success as home values (and your own net worth) grow. Let’s connect to start the homebuying process today.

Get Ready for Smaller, More Affordable Homes

Have you been trying to buy a home, but higher mortgage rates and home prices are limiting your options? If so, here’s some good news – based on what Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, has to say – smaller, more affordable homes are on the way:

“Buyers should expect that over the next 12 to 24 months there will be a notable increase in the number of entry-level homes available.”

In some ways, smaller homes are already here. When the pandemic hit, the meaning of home changed. People needed the space their home provided not only as a place to live, but as a place to work, go to school, exercise, and more. Those who had that space were more likely to keep it. And those that didn’t were in a position where they were trying to sell their smaller house to move up to a larger one. That meant the homes coming to the market during the pandemic were smaller than those on the market before the pandemic – and that trend continues today (see graph below):

This graph also shows how the size of homes on the market changes seasonally. Larger homes tend to come on the market during the summer months when households with children who are out of school are looking to move.

That seasonality means, based on historical trends and the fact that fall is now approaching, we can expect smaller, more affordable homes to come to the market throughout the rest of the year.

That’s great news because, as Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), states, the need for these types of homes has gone up recently:

“. . . as interest rates increased in 2022, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower.”

What Does This Mean for You?

The seasonal trend of smaller homes coming to the market in the later months of the year, coupled with builders bringing smaller, more affordable newly built homes to the market right now, is good news – especially if you’re finding it difficult to afford a home. Mikaela Arroyo, Director of the New Home Trends Institute at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says this about a potential increase in the availability of smaller homes:

“It’s not solving the affordability crisis, but it is creating opportunities for people to be able to afford an entry-level home in an area.”

Bottom Line

If a smaller, more affordable home sounds appealing to you, good news – they’re coming. To keep up with what’s available in our area, let’s connect.

Why Median Home Sales Price Is Confusing Right Now

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is set to release its most recent Existing Home Sales (EHS) report tomorrow. This monthly release provides information on the volume of sales and price trends for homes that have previously been owned. In the upcoming release, it’ll likely say home prices are down. This may seem a bit confusing, especially if you’ve been following along and reading the blogs saying home prices have hit the bottom and have since rebounded.

So, why would this say home prices are falling when so many other price reports say they’re going back up? It all depends on the methodology of each one. NAR reports on the median home sales price, while some other sources use repeat sales prices. Here’s how those approaches differ.

The Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University explains median sales prices like this:

“The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.”

Investopedia helps define what a repeat sales approach means:

“Repeat-sales methods calculate changes in home prices based on sales of the same property, thereby avoiding the problem of trying to account for price differences in homes with varying characteristics.”

The Challenge with the Median Home Sales Price Today

As the quotes above say, the approaches can tell different stories. That’s why median home sales price data (like EHS) may say prices are down, even though the vast majority of the repeat sales reports show prices are appreciating again.

Bill McBride, Author of the Calculated Risk blog, sums the difference up like this:

“Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.”

To drive this point home, here’s a simple explanation of median value (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value is now five cents.

In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change.

That’s why using the median home sales price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values may be confusing right now. Most buyers look at home prices as a starting point to determine if they match their budgets. But most people buy homes based on the monthly mortgage payment they can afford, not just the price of the house. When mortgage rates are higher, you may have to buy a less expensive home to keep your monthly housing expense affordable.

That’s why a greater number of ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now – and that’s causing the median home sales price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value. 

When you see the stories in the media that prices are falling later this week, remember the coins. Just because the median home sales price changes, it doesn’t mean home prices are falling. What it means is the mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and current mortgage rates.

Bottom Line

For a more in-depth understanding of home price trends and reports, let’s connect.

There's Only Half the Inventory of a Normal Housing Market Today

Wondering if it still makes sense to sell your house right now? The short answer is, yes. Especially if you consider how few homes there are for sale today.

You may have heard inventory is low right now, but you may not fully realize just how low or why that’s a perk when you go to sell your house. This graph from Calculated Risk can help put that into perspective: 

As the graph shows, while housing inventory did grow slightly week-over-week (shown in the blue bar), overall supply is still low (shown in the red bars). Compared to the same week last year, supply is down roughly 10% – and it was already considered low at that time. But, if you look further back, you’ll see inventory is down even more significantly.

To gauge just how far off from normal today’s inventory is, let’s compare right now to 2019 (the last normal year in the market). When you compare the same week this year with the matching week in 2019, supply is about 50% lower. That means there are half the homes for sale now than there’d usually be.

The key takeaway? We’re still nowhere near what’s considered a balanced market. There’s plenty of demand for your house because there just aren’t enough homes to go around. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”

So, if you want to list your house, know that there’s only about half the inventory there’d usually be in a more normal year. That means your house will be in the spotlight if you sell now and you may see multiple offers and a fast home sale. 

Bottom Line

With the number of homes for sale roughly half of what there’d usually be in a more normal year, you can rest assured there’s demand for your house. If you want to sell, let’s connect now so your house can shine above the rest while inventory is so low.

Explaining Today’s Mortgage Rates

If you’re following mortgage rates because you know they impact your borrowing costs, you may be wondering what the future holds for them. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to answer that question because mortgage rates are notoriously hard to forecast.  

But, there’s one thing that’s historically a good indicator of what’ll happen with rates, and that’s the relationship between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield. Here’s a graph showing those two metrics since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:

As the graph shows, historically, the average spread between the two over the last 50 years was 1.72 percentage points (also commonly referred to as 172 basis points). If you look at the trend line you can see when the Treasury Yield trends up, mortgage rates will usually respond. And, when the Yield drops, mortgage rates tend to follow. While they typically move in sync like this, the gap between the two has remained about 1.72 percentage points for quite some time. But, what’s crucial to notice is that spread is widening far beyond the norm lately (see graph below):

If you’re asking yourself: what’s pushing the spread beyond its typical average? It’s primarily because of uncertainty in the financial markets. Factors such as inflation, other economic drivers, and the policy and decisions from the Federal Reserve (The Fed) are all influencing mortgage rates and a widening spread.

Why Does This Matter for You?

This may feel overly technical and granular, but here’s why homebuyers like you should understand the spread. It means, based on the normal historical gap between the two, there’s room for mortgage rates to improve today.

And, experts think that’s what lies ahead as long as inflation continues to cool. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:

“It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal . . . However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.”

Similarly, an article from Forbes says:

“Though housing market watchers expect mortgage rates to remain elevated amid ongoing economic uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking war on inflation, they believe rates peaked last fall and will decline—to some degree—later this year, barring any unforeseen surprises.”

Bottom Line

If you’re either a first-time home buyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your current needs, keep on top of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts think will happen in the coming months.