3 Must-Do’s When Selling Your House in 2024

If one of the goals on your list is selling your house and making a move this year, you’re likely juggling a mix of excitement about what’s ahead and feeling a little sentimental about your current home.

A great way to balance those emotions and make sure you’re confident in your decision is to keep these three best practices in mind when you’re ready to sell.

1. Price Your Home Right

The housing market shifted in 2023 as mortgage rates rose and home price appreciation started to normalize once again. As a seller, you still need to recognize how important it is to price your house appropriately based on where the market is today. Hannah Jones, Economic Research Analyst for Realtor.com, explains:

“Sellers need to become familiar with their local market and work closely with a local agent to make sure their listing is attractive to buyers. Buyers feeling the pressure of affordability are likely to be pickier, so a well-priced, well-maintained home is the ticket to drumming up big demand.”

If you price your house too high, you run the risk of deterring buyers. And if you go too low, you’re leaving money on the table. An experienced real estate agent can help determine what your ideal asking price should be, so your house moves quickly and for top dollar.

2. Keep Your Emotions in Check

Today, homeowners are staying in their houses longer than they used to. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), since 1985, the average time a homeowner has owned their home has increased from 6 to 10 years (see graph below):

This is much more than what used to be the norm. The side effect, however, is when you stay in one place for so long, you may get even more emotionally attached to your space. If it’s the first home you bought or the house where your loved ones grew up, it very likely means something extra special to you. Every room has memories, and it’s hard to detach from the sentimental value.

For some homeowners, that makes it even tougher to separate the emotional value of the house from fair market price. That’s why you need a real estate professional to help you with the negotiations and the best pricing strategy along the way. Trust the professionals who have your best interests in mind.

3. Stage Your Home Properly

While you may love your decor and how you’ve customized your house over the years, not all buyers will feel the same way about your vibe. That’s why it’s so important to make sure you focus on your home’s first impression, so it appeals to as many buyers as possible.

Buyers want to be able to picture themselves in the home. They need to see themselves inside with their furniture and keepsakes – not your pictures and decorations. As Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at NAR, says:

“Buyers want to easily envision themselves within a new home and home staging is a way to showcase the property in its best light.”

A real estate professional can help you with expertise on getting your house ready to sell.

Bottom Line

If you’re considering selling your house, let’s connect so you have help navigating the process while prioritizing these must-do’s.

Why You May Want To Seriously Consider a Newly Built Home

Are you putting off your plans to sell because you’re worried you won’t be able to find a home you like when you move? If so, it may be time to consider a newly built home and the benefits that come with one. Here’s why.

Near-Record Percentage of New Home Inventory

Newly built homes are becoming an increasingly significant part of today’s housing inventory. According to the most recent report from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):

“Newly built homes available for sale accounted for 31% of total homes available for sale in November, compared to an approximate 12% historical average.”

That means the percentage of the total homes available to buy that are newly built is well over two times higher than the norm. And even more new homes are on the way.

Recent data from the Census shows there’s been an uptick in both housing starts (where builders break ground on more new homes) and housing completions (homes where construction just wrapped).

And while some people may worry builders are building too many homes, that isn’t a concern – if anything, the recent increase is really good news. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Even more home building will be needed with the housing shortage persisting in most markets . . . Another 30% rise in home construction can easily be absorbed in the marketplace . . .”

How This Helps You 

Since the supply of existing homes for sale is still low right now, the increase of new-home construction can be a game changer because it gives you more options for your search.

Picture yourself in a home that’s new from the ground up: new appliances, fresh paint, fewer maintenance needs because everything is new, and so much more. Doesn’t that sound nice?

And it may be more within reach than you ever imagined. In addition, some builders are offering things like mortgage rate buy-downs for homebuyers right now. This can help offset today’s affordability challenges while also getting you into your dream home. In a recent article, Patrick Duffy, Senior Real Estate Economist at U.S. News, explains:

“Builders have been using mortgage interest rate buydowns for many years as a sales incentive whenever interest rates are relatively high, . . .Today more builders are offering rate buydowns for the entirety of the loan, allowing buyers to finance more home for the same payment amount.”

Just remember, the process of buying from a builder is different from buying from a home seller, so it’s important to partner with a trusted real estate agent who knows the local market. They’ll be your go-to resource for coordinating with the builder, reviewing contracts, and more.

Bottom Line

If you’re trying to sell so you can make a move but you’re having a hard time finding a home you like, let’s connect. That way you have a local expert to help you explore all of your options, including the newly built homes in our area.

Solano County Market Snapshot for December 2023

The December 2023 Solano County Market Snapshot

December's market snapshot for Solano County is here!

Below, I'm sharing the latest data on our local real estate market compared to this same time last month.

That way you can see what's really going on in our market to make better-informed decisions.

It's important to me to share this kind of data as the real estate market has definitely been making headlines lately!

So, it's important we take a look at what's going on on our local level.

Average Sales Price = $618K

This price is up compared to last month. This indicates that the average price of homes sold has increased since 2022. If you've been thinking about selling, this could be good news for you!

Days on Market = 35 Days

“Days on market” is how long a home is actively for sale before it goes under contract. Currently, our days on market have remained the same since last month. Overall home sales are selling more quickly compared to this time last year.

# of Homes for Sale = 549 homes

The “number of homes for sale” is an important stat to monitor because it indicates the availability of inventory. Currently, we are down over the last month. Keep in mind, fewer people tend to sell their homes during the holidays, and this data can be impacted by the season.

# of Homes Sold = 240 homes

Last month, the number of homes sold decreased compared to the month before. As with active listings, this stat can be impacted seasonally and by changes in the market. We’ll continue to monitor how it trends in 2024.

Average Home Value = $350 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out November for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change = 4.5%

Overall home values are up over last year. In fact, we're seeing an increase of 4.5%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please send me an email at michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com and let me know where!

The information I’m sharing includes:

• Data Source: BAREIS MLS

• Timeframe: Sep 2022 to Nov 2023

• Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County

• Click here to see the graphs for this month’s report.

And if you'd like to take a look at another area or have a deeper conversation about whether now's a good time to buy or sell, please reach out to me at (707) 208-2557. I'm only a call/text away and happy to help!

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this month! As we gear up for the next year, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

Michelle Perez

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Experts Project Home Prices Will Rise over the Next 5 Years

Even with so much data showing home prices are actually rising in most of the country, there are still a lot of people who worry there will be another price crash in the immediate future. In fact, a recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them.

To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

While seeing a small handful of expert opinions may not be enough to change your mind, hopefully, a larger group of experts will reassure you. Here’s that larger group.

The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics is a great resource to show what experts forecast for home prices over a five-year period. It includes projections from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. And the results from the latest quarterly release show home prices are expected to go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, remember home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it should go up by another 2.17% next year.

If you’re worried home prices are going to fall, here’s the big takeaway. Even though prices vary by local area, experts project they’ll continue to rise across the country for years to come at a pace that’s more normal for the market.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re not convinced yet, maybe these numbers will get your attention. They show how a typical home’s value could change over the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES. Check out the graph below:

In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

Bottom Line

If you’re someone who’s worried home prices are going to fall, rest assured a lot of experts say it’s just the opposite – nationally, home prices will continue to climb not just next year, but for years to come. If you have any questions or concerns about what’s next for home prices in our local area, let’s connect. 

Reasons To Sell Your House Before the New Year

As the year winds down, you may have decided it's time to make a move and put your house on the market. But should you sell now or wait until January? While it may be tempting to hold off until after the holidays, here are three reasons to make your move before the new year.

Get One Step Ahead of Other Sellers

Typically, in the residential real estate market, homeowners are less likely to list their houses toward the end of the year. That’s because people get busy around the holidays and sometimes deprioritize selling their house until the start of the new year when their schedules and social calendars calm down. But that gives you an opportunity to get one step ahead.

Selling now, while other homeowners may hold off until after the holidays, can help you get a leg up on your competition. Start the process with a real estate agent today so you can get your house on the market before your neighbors do.

Get Your House in Front of Eager Buyers 

Even though the supply of homes for sale did grow compared to last year, it’s still low. That means there aren’t enough homes on the market today. While some buyers may also delay their plans to move until January, others will still need to move for personal reasons or because something in their life has changed.

Those buyers are still going to be active later this year and will be seriously motivated to make their move happen because they need to. Unfortunately, the challenge they'll face is a shortage of available inventory to meet their needs. A recent article from Investopedia says:

“. . . if your house is up for sale in the winter and someone is looking at it, chances are that person is serious and ready to buy. Anyone shopping for a new home between Thanksgiving and New Year’s is likely going to be a serious buyer. Putting your home on the market at this time of year and attracting a serious buyer can often result in a quicker sale.”

Use Your Equity To Fuel Your Move

Keep in mind that homeowners today have record amounts of equity. According to CoreLogic, the average amount of equity per mortgage holder has climbed to almost $290,000. That means the equity you have in your house right now could cover some, if not all, of a down payment on the home of your dreams.

And as you weigh the reasons to sell before year-end, it's important to remember the reasons that sparked your desire to move in the first place. Maybe it’s time for a new home in a location that suits you better, one that offers the perfect space for you and your loved ones, or maybe your needs have evolved over time. A local real estate agent can help you determine how much home equity you have and how you can use it to achieve your goal of making a move.

Bottom Line

Listing your home before the new year can offer unique benefits. Less competition, motivated buyers, and your equity gains can all play to your advantage. Reach out, and let's achieve your goals before winter sets in.

Don’t Believe Everything You Read About Home Prices

According to the latest data from Fannie Mae, 23% of Americans still think home prices will go down over the next twelve months. But why do roughly 1 in 4 people feel that way?

It has a lot to do with all the negative talk about home prices over the past year. Since late 2022, the media has created a lot of fear about a price crash and those concerns are still lingering. You may be hearing people in your own life saying they’re worried about home prices or see on social media that some influencers are saying prices are going to come tumbling down.

If you’re someone who still thinks prices are going to fall, ask yourself this: Which is a more reliable place to get your information – clickbait headlines and social media or a trusted expert on the housing market?

The answer is simple. Listen to the professionals who specialize in residential real estate.

Here’s the latest data you can actually trust. Housing market experts acknowledge that nationally, prices did dip down slightly late last year, but that was short-lived. Data shows prices have already rebounded this year after that slight decline in 2022 (see graph below):

But it’s not just Fannie Mae that’s reporting this bounce back. Experts from across the industry are showing it in their data too. And that’s why so many forecasts now project home prices will net positive this year – not negative. The graph below helps prove this point with the latest forecasts from each organization:

 What’s worth noting is that, just a few short weeks ago, the Fannie Mae forecast was for 3.9% appreciation in 2023. In the forecast that just came out, that projection was updated from 3.9% to 6.7% for the year. This increase goes to show just how confident experts are that home prices will net positive this year.

So, if you believe home prices are falling, it may be time to get your insights from the experts instead – and they’re saying prices aren’t falling, they’re climbing.

Bottom Line

There’s been a lot of misleading information about home prices over the past year. And that’s still having an impact on how people are feeling about the housing market today. But it’s best not to believe everything you hear or read.

If you want information you can trust, turn to the real estate experts. Their data shows home prices are on the way back up and will net positive for the year. If you have questions about what’s happening in our local area, let’s connect. 

What Are Accessory Dwelling Units and How Can They Benefit You?

Maybe you’re in the market for a home and are having a hard time finding the right one that fits your budget. Or perhaps you’re already a homeowner in need of extra income or a place for loved ones. Whether as a potential homebuyer or a homeowner with changing needs, accessory dwelling units, or ADUs for short, may be able to help you reach your goals.

What Is an ADU?

As AARP says:

“An ADU is a small residence that shares a single-family lot with a larger, primary dwelling.”

“An ADU is an independent, self-contained living space with a kitchen or kitchenette, bathroom and sleeping area.”

“An ADU can be located within, attached to, or detached from the main residence. It can be created out of an existing structure (such as a garage) or built anew.”

If you're thinking about whether an ADU makes sense for you as a buyer or a homeowner, here's some useful information and benefits that ADUs can provide. Keep in mind, that regulations for ADUs vary based on where you live, so lean on a local real estate professional for more information.  

The Benefits of ADUs

Freddie Mac and the AARP identify some of the best features of ADUs for both buyers and homeowners:

• Living Close by, But Still Separate: ADUs allow loved ones to live together while having separate spaces. That means you can enjoy each other’s company and help each other out with things like childcare, but also have privacy when needed. If this appeals to you, you may want to consider buying a home with an ADU or adding an ADU onto your house. According to Freddie Mac:

“Having an accessory dwelling unit on an existing property has become a popular way for homeowners to offer independent living space to family members.”

• Aging in Place: Similarly, ADUs allow older people to be close to loved ones who can help them if they need it as they age. It gives them the best of both worlds – independence and support from loved ones. For example, if your parents are getting older and you want them nearby, you may want to buy a home with an ADU or build one onto your existing house.

• Affordable To Build: Since ADUs are often on the smaller side, they’re typically less expensive to build than larger, standalone homes. Building one can also increase your property’s value.

• Generating Additional Income: If you own a home with an ADU or if you build an ADU on your land, it can help generate rental income you could use toward your own mortgage payments. It’s worth noting that because an ADU exists on a single-family lot as a secondary dwelling, it typically cannot be sold separately from the primary residence. But that’s changing in some states. Work with a professional to understand your options. 

These are a few of the reasons why many people who benefit from ADUs think they’re a good idea. As Scott Wild, SVP of Consulting at John Burns Research, says:

“It’s gone from a small niche in the market to really a much more impactful part of new housing.”

Bottom Line

ADUs have some great advantages for buyers and homeowners alike. If you're interested, reach out to a real estate professional who can help you understand local codes and regulations for this type of housing and what’s available in your market.

The Q3 2023 Solano County Market Recap

The Q3 (Jul-Sep) 2023 Solano County Market Recap

I created this resource for you to share the market data & trends we saw in our local area. Below you’ll learn more about last quarter’s shifting market. I’ve included info that’s valuable whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, or you want to be a more informed homeowner in 2023.

# of Homes Sold = 906

We started the third quarter with a competitive market that drove up home sales. Then, home sales slowed down with the rise of mortgage rates. Overall, we saw fewer homes sell than in Q3 2022 in our local area.

Average Home Value = $348 per sqft

This is the average in our area to close out the third quarter for ALL homes. If you're a homeowner, I recommend we closely examine how the market impacted your home's value. Let me know if you'd like a complimentary value estimation for your home!

1-YR Value Change =

Overall home values are down over last year. In fact, we're seeing a slight decrease of 0.3%. To put that into perspective, for the past 30 years, we've seen an average appreciation rate of about +4%.

Average Sales Price = $620K

This is the average price a listing in our area sold for. This price is up over last year. If you've been thinking about buying, know that you can benefit from less competition from other buyers in today's market.

Days on Market = 30 Days

This is how long a home is actively for sale on the market before it's pending or goes under contract. While homes aren't selling as quickly as they were in the recent past, our Days on Market stat for Q3 2022 (36 days) puts this timeframe into perspective.

Total Active Listings = 562 homes

At the time this report was created, we currently have 562 of homes for sale in Solano County. To see a list of current inventory - valuable info for both buyers & sellers - please let me know!"

And if you'd like my signature "Real Estate Market Recap" for a different area, please reply back and let me know where!

Note: the market data I'm sharing includes -Data Source: BAREIS MLS. Timeframe: Quarter 3 (July to Sept 2023). Housing Type: Residential Homes in Solano County. Click here to see the graphs for this quarter’s report.

Thank you!

Thank you for joining me this quarter! As we gear up for the next season, I look forward to bringing you even more tips, trends, and local insights in my email newsletter (subscribe here to get on the list). And as always, if you or someone you know has a real estate need or question, I am always here to help!

Michelle Perez

REALTOR®
Michelle Perez & Associates, RE/MAX Gold

Phone: 707-208-2557
Email: michelleperez@sellwithmichelle.com
Website: sellwithmichelle.com

Are Grandparents Moving To Be Closer to Their Grandkids?

During the pandemic, many people distanced themselves from their loved ones for health reasons. Grandparents were told to stay away from their grandkids, especially as schools started to open. That’s because it would have been risky to visit with their grandchildren who may have gotten sick from school.

Now that the pandemic has passed, many grandparents want more than ever to be near their grandchildren again to make up for that lost time. But how are they getting that “Grandparent Wish?” The data tells us many are moving to make sure they’re getting more quality time.

Grandparents Are Moving To Be Near Loved Ones

Recent data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows people between the ages of 55 and 74 are moving farther (more than 100 miles) than any other age group (see graph below):

The average age of grandparents in the U.S. is 67 years. The logical leap is that at least some of the people who are moving the furthest are grandparents. But what’s causing them to move so far?

The same report from NAR shows the top reason people move is to be closer to loved ones (see graph below):

Based on this data, it’s fair to say many grandparents are getting their wish of more quality time with their grandchildren by moving to be closer to them. And after experiencing isolation and loneliness during the COVID pandemic, that’s an especially good thing.

If you’re a grandparent, you know how important your grandchildren are. And you may be willing to sell and move just to be closer by. As Vance Cariaga, a journalist at Go Bank Rates, explains:

“Never underestimate the power of grandchildren – especially when it comes to lifestyle and financial decisions. Recent data shows that many baby boomers are relocating further away from home than they used to so they can be closer to their grandbabies.”

Bottom Line

The data shows grandparents are moving further to be near their grandchildren. If you have grandchildren of your own, maybe you can relate. When you decide it’s time to be closer to your loved ones, let's connect.

Home Prices Are Not Falling

During the fourth quarter of last year, some housing experts projected home prices were going to crash in 2023. The media ran with those forecasts and put out headlines calling for doom and gloom in the housing market. All of this negative news coverage made a lot of people have doubts about the strength of the residential real estate market.

If it made you question if you should delay your own plans to move, here’s what you really need to know.

Home Prices Never Crashed

Disregard what you saw in the headlines. The actual data shows home prices were remarkably resilient and performed far better than the media would have you believe (see graph below):

This graph uses reports from three trusted sources to clearly illustrate prices have already rebounded after experiencing only slight declines nationally. That’s a far cry from the crash so many articles called for.

The declines that did happen (shown in red), weren’t drastic but were short-lived. As Nicole Friedman, a reporter at the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), says:

“Home prices aren’t falling anymore. . . The surprisingly quick recovery suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected . . .”

Even though some media coverage made a big deal about home prices pulling back, the slight correction that happened is already in the rearview mirror. Basically, this data shows you home prices aren’t falling anymore – they’re actually going back up.

What’s Next for Home Prices?

The consensus from experts is that home price growth will continue in the years ahead and is returning to normal levels for the market. That means we’ll still see home prices appreciating, just at a slower pace than the last few years – and that’s a good thing.

Some news sources will see home price growth slowing and put out stories that make you think prices are falling again. The return of misleading headlines like those is already having an impact on how homebuyers are feeling again. You can see how this affects general opinion in the Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae (see graph below):

  While the percentage of Americans who think prices will fall has been slowly declining this year, the latest Consumer Confidence data indicates that’s ticked back up recently (shown in red). This change is surprising especially since the home price data shows prices are going up, not down. It tells you the impact the media still has on public opinion.

Don’t fall for the negative headlines and become part of this statistic. Remember, data from a number of sources shows home prices aren’t falling anymore.

Bottom Line

Even though the media may make things sound doom and gloom, the data shows home prices aren’t falling anymore. So, don’t let the headlines scare you or delay your plans. Let's connect so you have a trusted resource to cut through the noise and tell you what’s really happening in our area.

The Return of Normal Seasonality for Home Price Appreciation

If you’re thinking of making a move, one of the biggest questions you have right now is probably: what’s happening with home prices? Despite what you may be hearing in the news, nationally, home prices aren’t falling. It’s just that price growth is beginning to normalize. Here’s the context you need to really understand that trend.

In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. It’s called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach. Home prices follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand.

That’s why there’s a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to show typical monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2022 (not adjusted, so you can see the seasonality):

As the data shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do in the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again. Price growth slows, but still typically appreciates.

After several unusual ‘unicorn’ years, today’s higher mortgage rates helped usher in the first signs of the return of seasonality. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.”

Why This Is So Important to Understand

In the coming months, you’re going to see the media talk more about home prices. In their coverage, you’ll likely see industry terms like these:

• Appreciation: when prices increase.

• Deceleration of appreciation: when prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower or more moderate pace.

• Depreciation: when prices decrease.

Don’t let the terminology confuse you or let any misleading headlines cause any unnecessary fear. The rapid pace of home price growth the market saw in recent years was unsustainable. It had to slow down at some point and that’s what we’re starting to see – deceleration of appreciation, not depreciation. 

Remember, it’s normal to see home price growth slow down as the year goes on. And that definitely doesn’t mean home prices are falling. They’re just rising at a more moderate pace.

Bottom Line

While the headlines are generating fear and confusion on what’s happening with home prices, the truth is simple. Home price appreciation is returning to normal seasonality. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our local area, let’s connect.

Why Median Home Sales Price Is Confusing Right Now

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is set to release its most recent Existing Home Sales (EHS) report tomorrow. This monthly release provides information on the volume of sales and price trends for homes that have previously been owned. In the upcoming release, it’ll likely say home prices are down. This may seem a bit confusing, especially if you’ve been following along and reading the blogs saying home prices have hit the bottom and have since rebounded.

So, why would this say home prices are falling when so many other price reports say they’re going back up? It all depends on the methodology of each one. NAR reports on the median home sales price, while some other sources use repeat sales prices. Here’s how those approaches differ.

The Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University explains median sales prices like this:

“The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.”

Investopedia helps define what a repeat sales approach means:

“Repeat-sales methods calculate changes in home prices based on sales of the same property, thereby avoiding the problem of trying to account for price differences in homes with varying characteristics.”

The Challenge with the Median Home Sales Price Today

As the quotes above say, the approaches can tell different stories. That’s why median home sales price data (like EHS) may say prices are down, even though the vast majority of the repeat sales reports show prices are appreciating again.

Bill McBride, Author of the Calculated Risk blog, sums the difference up like this:

“Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.”

To drive this point home, here’s a simple explanation of median value (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value is now five cents.

In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change.

That’s why using the median home sales price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values may be confusing right now. Most buyers look at home prices as a starting point to determine if they match their budgets. But most people buy homes based on the monthly mortgage payment they can afford, not just the price of the house. When mortgage rates are higher, you may have to buy a less expensive home to keep your monthly housing expense affordable.

That’s why a greater number of ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now – and that’s causing the median home sales price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value. 

When you see the stories in the media that prices are falling later this week, remember the coins. Just because the median home sales price changes, it doesn’t mean home prices are falling. What it means is the mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and current mortgage rates.

Bottom Line

For a more in-depth understanding of home price trends and reports, let’s connect.

There's Only Half the Inventory of a Normal Housing Market Today

Wondering if it still makes sense to sell your house right now? The short answer is, yes. Especially if you consider how few homes there are for sale today.

You may have heard inventory is low right now, but you may not fully realize just how low or why that’s a perk when you go to sell your house. This graph from Calculated Risk can help put that into perspective: 

As the graph shows, while housing inventory did grow slightly week-over-week (shown in the blue bar), overall supply is still low (shown in the red bars). Compared to the same week last year, supply is down roughly 10% – and it was already considered low at that time. But, if you look further back, you’ll see inventory is down even more significantly.

To gauge just how far off from normal today’s inventory is, let’s compare right now to 2019 (the last normal year in the market). When you compare the same week this year with the matching week in 2019, supply is about 50% lower. That means there are half the homes for sale now than there’d usually be.

The key takeaway? We’re still nowhere near what’s considered a balanced market. There’s plenty of demand for your house because there just aren’t enough homes to go around. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.”

So, if you want to list your house, know that there’s only about half the inventory there’d usually be in a more normal year. That means your house will be in the spotlight if you sell now and you may see multiple offers and a fast home sale. 

Bottom Line

With the number of homes for sale roughly half of what there’d usually be in a more normal year, you can rest assured there’s demand for your house. If you want to sell, let’s connect now so your house can shine above the rest while inventory is so low.

Reasons Your Home May Not Be Selling

When it comes to selling your house, you want three things: to sell it for the most money you can, to do it in a certain amount of time, and to do all of that with the fewest hassles. And, while the current housing market is generally favorable to sellers due to today’s limited housing supply, there are still factors that can cause delays or even prevent a house from selling.

If you're having trouble getting your house to sell in today's sellers’ market, here are a few things to think about.

Limited Access – If You Can’t Show It, You Can’t Sell It.

One of the biggest mistakes you can make as a seller is limiting the days and times when buyers can view your home. In any market, if you want to maximize the sale of your house, you can’t limit potential buyers’ ability to view it. Remember, minimal access equals minimal exposure.

In some cases, some of the most motivated buyers may come from outside of your local area. Because they’re traveling, they might not have the luxury to adjust their schedules when faced with limited options to tour your house, so make it available as much as possible.

Priced Too High – Price It To Sell, Not To Sit.

Pricing is a critical factor that can significantly impact your home sale. While it's tempting to push the price higher to try to maximize your profit, overpricing can deter potential buyers and lead to your home sitting on the market longer.

Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow, notes:

“. . . sellers who price and market their home competitively shouldn’t have a problem finding a buyer.” 

Not to mention, buyers today have access to a number of tools and resources to view available homes in your area. If your house is priced unreasonably high compared to similar homes, it may drive potential buyers away. Listen to the feedback your agent is getting at open houses and showings. If the feedback is consistent, it may be time to re-evaluate and potentially lower the price. 

Not Freshened Up Before Listing – If It Looks Good, It’ll Make a Good Impression.

When selling your house, the old saying “you never get a second chance to make a first impression” matters. Putting in the work on the exterior of your home is just as important as what you stage inside. Freshen up your landscaping to improve your home’s curb appeal so you can make an impact upfront. As an article from Investopedia says:

“Curb-appeal projects make the property look good as soon as prospective buyers arrive. While these projects may not add a considerable amount of monetary value, they will help your home sell faster—and you can do a lot of the work yourself to save money and time.”

But don’t let that stop at the front door. By removing personal items and reducing clutter inside, you give buyers more freedom to picture themselves in the home. Additionally, a new coat of paint or cleaning the floors can go a long way to freshening up a room.

For all of these things, lean on your real estate agent for expert advice based on your unique situation and feedback you get from buyers throughout the process.

Bottom Line

If your house isn’t getting the attention you feel it deserves and isn’t selling in the timeframe you wanted, it’s time to ask your trusted real estate agent for advice on what you may need to revisit or change in your approach. To get those expert insights, let’s connect.

Lending Standards Are Not Like They Were Leading Up to the Crash

You might be worried we’re heading for a housing crash, but there are many reasons why this housing market isn’t like the one we saw in 2008. One of which is how lending standards are different today. Here’s a look at the data to help prove it. 

Every month, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) releases the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). According to their website:

“The MCAI provides the only standardized quantitative index that is solely focused on mortgage credit. The MCAI is . . . a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.”

Basically, the index determines how easy it is to get a mortgage. Take a look at the graph below of the MCAI since they started keeping track of this data in 2004. It shows how lending standards have changed over time. It works like this: 

• When lending standards are less strict, it’s easier to get a mortgage, and the index (the green line in the graph) is higher.

• When lending standards are stricter, it’s harder to get a mortgage, and the line representing the index is lower.

In 2004, the index was around 400. But, by 2006, it had gone up to over 850. Today, the story is quite different. Since the crash, the index went down because lending standards got tighter, so today it’s harder to get a mortgage.

Loose Lending Standards Contributed to the Housing Bubble

One of the main factors that contributed to the housing bubble was that lending standards were a lot less strict back then. Realtor.com explains it like this: 

“In the early 2000s, it wasn’t exactly hard to snag a home mortgage. . . . plenty of mortgages were doled out to people who lied about their incomes and employment, and couldn’t actually afford homeownership.” 

The tall peak in the graph above indicates that leading up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get credit, and the requirements for getting a loan were far from strict. Back then, credit was widely available, and the threshold for qualifying for a loan was low.

Lenders were approving loans without always going through a verification process to confirm if the borrower would likely be able to repay the loan. That means creditors were lending to more borrowers who had a higher risk of defaulting on their loans.

Today’s Loans Are Much Tougher To Get than Before

As mentioned, lending standards have changed a lot since then. Bankrate describes the difference: 

“Today, lenders impose tough standards on borrowers – and those who are getting a mortgage overwhelmingly have excellent credit.”

If you look back at the graph, you’ll notice after the peak around the time of the housing crash, the line representing the index went down dramatically and has stayed low since. In fact, the line is far below where standards were even in 2004 – and it’s getting lower. Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at MBA, provides the most recent update from May:

“Mortgage credit availability decreased for the third consecutive month . . . With the decline in availability, the MCAI is now at its lowest level since January 2013.”

The decreasing index suggests standards are getting much tougher – which makes it clear we’re far away from the extreme lending practices that contributed to the crash.

Bottom Line

Leading up to the housing crash, lending standards were much more relaxed with little evaluation done to measure a borrower’s potential to repay their loan. Today, standards are tighter, and the risk is reduced for both lenders and borrowers. This goes to show, these are two very different housing markets, and this market isn’t like the last time.

Why Buying or Selling a Home Helps the Economy and Your Community

If you're thinking about buying or selling a house, it's important to know that it doesn't just affect your life, but also your community.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a report every year to show how much economic activity is generated by home sales. The chart below illustrates that impact:

As the visual shows, when a house is sold, it can make a big difference in the local economy. The impact comes largely from the workers required to build, update, and buy and sell homes. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains how the housing industry adds jobs to a community:

“The economic impact means housing is a significant job creator. In fact, for every single-family home built, enough economic activity is generated to sustain three full-time jobs for a year, per NAHB research. . . . And one job for every $100,000 in remodeling spending.” 

Housing being a major job creator makes sense when you consider there are many different industries involved in the process. A recent article from Fortune notes housing activity could have a more robust impact than you think due to the many ways it’s tied to the economy:

“Housing has three direct linkages to economic activity (GDP): the construction of new homes, the remodeling of existing homes, and that of housing transactions. . . . consider the activity associated with home sales – think broker fees, lawyers, etc. – which are a sizable contributor to housing’s GDP footprint.” 

When you buy or sell a home, you work with a team of professionals, including contractors, specialists, lawyers, and city officials. Each person plays a role in making the transaction happen. 

So, when you make a move in the housing market, you're not just meeting your own needs, you're also making a positive impact on the community. Knowing this can give you a sense of empowerment as you make your decision this year.

Bottom Line

Each and every home sale is important for the local economy. If you’re ready to move, let’s connect. It won’t just change your life – it’ll also have a strong positive effect on the whole community.

Oops! Home Prices Didn’t Crash After All

During the fourth quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:

Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:

“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:

"Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.” 

Goldman Sachs: 

“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”

The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence

These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.

The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed

However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months. 

In a report just released, Goldman Sachs explained:

“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”

Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:

Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.

Bottom Line

When the forecasts of significant home price depreciation were made last fall, they were made with megaphones. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts all broadcasted the news of an eminent crash in prices.

Now, forecasters are saying the worst is over and it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as they originally projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility – some may say duty – to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer.

Today’s Real Estate Market: The ‘Unicorns’ Have Galloped Off

Comparing real estate metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market. That’s due to possible variability in the market making the comparison less meaningful or accurate. Unpredictable events can have a significant impact on the circumstances and outcomes being compared. 

Comparing this year’s numbers to the two ‘unicorn’ years we just experienced is almost worthless. By ‘unicorn,’ this is the less common definition of the word:

“Something that is greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” 

The pandemic profoundly changed real estate over the last few years. The demand for a home of our own skyrocketed, and people needed a home office and big backyard. 

• Waves of first-time and second-home buyers entered the market.

• Already low mortgage rates were driven to historic lows. 

• The forbearance plan all but eliminated foreclosures.

• Home values reached appreciation levels never seen before.

It was a market that forever had been “greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” A ‘unicorn’ year.

Now, things are getting back to normal. The ‘unicorns’ have galloped off. 

Comparing today’s market to those years makes no sense. Here are three examples: 

Buyer Demand 

If you look at the headlines, you’d think there aren’t any buyers out there. We still sell over 10,000 houses a day in the United States. Of course, buyer demand is down from the two ‘unicorn’ years. But, according to ShowingTime, if we compare it to normal years (2017-2019), we can see that buyer activity is still strong (see graph below):

Home Prices

We can’t compare today’s home price increases to the last couple of years. According to Freddie Mac, 2020 and 2021 each had historic appreciation numbers. Here’s a graph also showing the more normal years (2017-2019):

We can see that we’re returning to more normal home value increases. There were several months of minimal depreciation in the second half of 2022. However, according to Fannie Mae, the market has returned to more normal appreciation in the first quarter of this year.

Foreclosures 

There have already been some startling headlines about the percentage increases in foreclosure filings. Of course, the percentages will be up. They are increases over historically low foreclosure rates. Here’s a graph with information from ATTOM, a property data provider:

There will be an increase over the numbers of the last three years now that the moratorium on foreclosures has ended. There are homeowners who lose their home to foreclosure every year, and it’s heartbreaking for those families. But, if we put the current numbers into perspective, we’ll realize that we’re actually going back to the normal filings from 2017-2019.

Bottom Line

There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the ‘unicorn’ years. Let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you keep everything in proper perspective.

The Benefits of Selling Now, According to Experts

If you’re trying to decide if now’s the time to sell your house, here’s what you should know. The limited number of homes available right now gives you a big advantage. That’s because there are more buyers out there than there are homes for sale. And, with so few homes on the market, buyers will have fewer options, so you set yourself up to get the most eyes possible on your house.

Here’s what industry experts are saying about why selling now has its benefits:

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“Inventory levels are still at historic lows. Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.”

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic:

“We have not seen the traditional uptick in new listings from existing homeowners, so undersupply of housing will continue to heighten market competition and put pressure on prices in most regions. Some markets are already heating up considerably, but price premiums that we saw last spring and summer are unlikely.”

Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com:

“Well-priced, move-in ready homes with curb appeal in desirable areas are still receiving multiple offers and selling for over the asking price in many parts of the country . . .”

Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow:

“. . . sellers who price and market their home competitively shouldn’t have a problem finding a buyer.”

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling your house, let’s connect so you have the expert insights you need to make the best possible move today. 

What You Need To Know About Home Price News

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release its latest Existing Home Sales Report tomorrow. The information it contains on home prices may cause some confusion and could even generate some troubling headlines. This all stems from the fact that NAR will report the median sales price, while other home price indices report repeat sales prices. The vast majority of the repeat sales indices show prices are starting to appreciate again. But the median price reported on Thursday may tell a different story. 

Here’s why using the median home price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values isn’t ideal right now. According to the Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University:

“The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less. While this is a good measure of the typical sale price, it is not very useful for measuring home price appreciation because it is affected by the ‘composition’ of homes that have sold.

For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.”

People buy homes based on their monthly mortgage payment, not the price of the house. When mortgage rates go up, they have to buy a less expensive home to keep the monthly expense affordable. More ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now, and that’s causing the median price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value. 

Even NAR, an organization that reports on median prices, acknowledges there are limitations to what this type of data can show you. NAR explains:

“Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data.”

For clarification, here’s a simple explanation of median value:

• You have three coins in your pocket. Line them up in ascending value (lowest to highest).

• If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value of the coins (the middle one) in your pocket is ten cents.

• If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value of the coins in your pocket is now five cents.

• In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth ten cents. The value of each coin didn’t change.

The same thing applies to today’s real estate market.

Bottom Line

Actual home values are going up in most markets. The median value reported tomorrow might tell a different story. For a more in-depth understanding of home price movements, let’s connect.